About a week ago, I wrote a report that looked at the latest MLB owners proposal from the perspective of competitive advantage. That report did not indicate that the proposed cap and floor would make a huge impact on competitive advantage. Yesterday, I wanted to take a slightly different look at the 1994-1995 strike and focus on attendance. Attendance is a big question for me as the deadline to December 1, 2026 ticks down. The last time the owners proposed a salary cap in 1994, attendance suffered for a few years. In 1994, there were simply fewer media options available. If we lose the 2027 season, how much damage could that do?
To dig into the numbers, I looked into Lahmans baseball data from 1985 - 2005. That gave me the year of the strike, the shortened 1995 season when they finally got back, and then solid time before and after to compare. To make the comparison more business like, I used a Lahmans stat called openings as opposed to home games. Openings accounts for doubleheaders; situations where one ticket (attendance event) can get a fan into two games.
When I looked at those numbers, yeah, attendance sure got screwed over the last strike. And I also found some numbers that indicate the current story; that the home run derby between Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire in 1998 is what brought fans back. That had an impact, but adding two teams that season really helped too.
Looking at the numbers, I'm really worried about what this beautiful sport will look like if we lose the 2027 season to a lockout.